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The last week for me

Druglike

The response to my new startup, Druglike (www.druglike.com), has been incredible. Thank you to everyone who is taking a chance on us, everyone who is interested in this new product and everyone who gave well wishes.

Which brings me to “Web3” and “crypto”.

The goal of software, especially at the application layer, is to enhance user productivity. To make the user happy, so they can do their job better and faster. All of the great software products do this, regardless of their technology stack, paradigm, design patterns, etc.

I have no allegiance to Web3. It is not some monolith I pray to. There is no software company that can afford to ignore the implications of some of these new technologies, just as there was no software company who could afford to ignore cloud computing, web services/SAAS, AI, etc. These are indisputably new tools. If you can integrate them in your software to create value, great. If you can’t, that’s fine too.

There are plenty of software technologies that have disappointed in their impact. I’ll never build a company that relies exclusively on the success of one risky, bleeding edge paradigm. Just as I never built a drug company that relied on one drug. If you make some Web3 infrastructure tool, you absolutely need the Web3 movement to “work” for your company to flourish.

My company is about software that will make the lives and jobs of chemists around the world easier. If you want to make a pesticide, animal health drug, yes, even a pharmaceutical, our simulation software will help, period. We have enough that is new and exciting that we will succeed even if Web3 is a flash in the pan, which to be clear, I do not think will be the case.

Some of the feedback I’ve been getting includes that this is one of the first attempts at a tangible real-world application of Web3. Maybe that’s true, and I think the space certainly needs to move away from purely DeFi. As I said, no software company should be ignoring how distributed technologies will change the way we compute. Even if that is as simple as a Login With MetaMask button replacing every Login with Google button.

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Markets

Interestingly, Cadence acquired Druglike competitor OpenEye for $500 million last night!

Both Facebook and Google are lapping really tough comparables. That’s the excuse, at least, per the companies. Which means that, at best, the last two years of strong growth was demand pull-in, not the acceleration of “a new normal”. We sort of knew that already, looking at a Nasdaq chart, but it is still puzzling to see YouTube grow 5% and Facebook have negative y/y revenue. That’s not just comparables. You could argue the rest of Google is growing faster and TikTok is causing Facebook problems, but I’d argue we have a bigger problem. Stay frosty!

I’m short SIGA. Monkeypox is hard to catch and transmit, the graph of confirmed cases is thankfully linear and while we’re in a pandemic-sensitive time, monkeypox should fade into the background. Famous last words, but that’s my take.

In my trading competition:

Day: Return (Cumulative Return)
7/18/22: +1.1% (+1.1%)
7/19/22: +3.4% (+4.6%)
7/20/22: +1.3% (+5.9%)
7/21/22: +0.2% (+6.2%)
7/22/22: +1.2% (+7.4%)
7/25/22: -0.7% (+6.7%)
7/26/22: -2.5% (+4.1%)
7/27/22: +2.2% (+6.3%)

Positions

Long: LQDA, BABA, GOOG, RBLX, TSLA, AMC, TEAM, VERU

Short: SIGA, MSFT, ISRG, UBI.FP, SGHC, CVM