Hey Martin very cool to see you on Substack, I just "recommended" your Substack and am looking forward to following your writing. I will probably be a regular in your comments section haha.
If you get a minute, checkout my Substack, I mainly investigate corruption/fraud in academia but also blog about prediction markets, economics, culture wars etc.
I've recently been excited about advances in biotech like embryonic gene editing, gamete selection, iterated embryo selection, massive multiple embryo selection, etc. I think they are really going to be game changers for humankind. While it will be hard to predict the exact timeline, it's hard to imagine anything from stopping humans from becoming healthier, happier, and more intelligent than any human being who has ever lived in the next 100 years.
The median estimate for the "First Birth from Stem-Cell Gametes" on Metaculus is 2034 [1]. This is going to make way for the possibility of massive multiple embryo selection and iterated embryo selection. The Metaculus estimate for first MMES is 2037 [2]. By 2068, metaculus believes that at least one nation with over a million people is going to have 10% of their population selected for intelligence [3]. Possible returns to selection for cognitive ability [4]:
1 in 2 --- 4.2 points
1 in 10 --- 11.5 points
1 in 100 --- 18.8 points
1 in 1000 --- 24.3 points
5 generations of 1-in-10 --- < 65 points
10 generations of 1-in-10 --- < 130 points
Cumulative limits --- 100 + points
Since intelligence has so many beneficial socioeconomic associations, it will likely have overwhelming and positive consequences which are difficult to predict. This will probably be met with some political backlash and result in some social strife [5].
It's interesting to see predictions about the future. I'm very glad to see you're free and writing on substack. Best wishes.
The God of Mischief Returns
I say this with Love my good man.
Hey Martin very cool to see you on Substack, I just "recommended" your Substack and am looking forward to following your writing. I will probably be a regular in your comments section haha.
If you get a minute, checkout my Substack, I mainly investigate corruption/fraud in academia but also blog about prediction markets, economics, culture wars etc.
https://karlstack.substack.com/
I've recently been excited about advances in biotech like embryonic gene editing, gamete selection, iterated embryo selection, massive multiple embryo selection, etc. I think they are really going to be game changers for humankind. While it will be hard to predict the exact timeline, it's hard to imagine anything from stopping humans from becoming healthier, happier, and more intelligent than any human being who has ever lived in the next 100 years.
The median estimate for the "First Birth from Stem-Cell Gametes" on Metaculus is 2034 [1]. This is going to make way for the possibility of massive multiple embryo selection and iterated embryo selection. The Metaculus estimate for first MMES is 2037 [2]. By 2068, metaculus believes that at least one nation with over a million people is going to have 10% of their population selected for intelligence [3]. Possible returns to selection for cognitive ability [4]:
1 in 2 --- 4.2 points
1 in 10 --- 11.5 points
1 in 100 --- 18.8 points
1 in 1000 --- 24.3 points
5 generations of 1-in-10 --- < 65 points
10 generations of 1-in-10 --- < 130 points
Cumulative limits --- 100 + points
Since intelligence has so many beneficial socioeconomic associations, it will likely have overwhelming and positive consequences which are difficult to predict. This will probably be met with some political backlash and result in some social strife [5].
It's interesting to see predictions about the future. I'm very glad to see you're free and writing on substack. Best wishes.
[1] https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3034/when-will-the-first-human-baby-from-stem-cell-derived-gametes-be-born/
[2] https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8910/massive-multiple-embryo-selection/
[3] https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9785/10-embryo-selection-for-iq-when/
[4] https://nickbostrom.com/papers/embryo.pdf
[5] https://parrhesia.substack.com/p/america-in-2072-a-society-stratified
Is the crypto section satire? Also, welcome back home Shkeli.
Glad you are back. Good read
Good to see you're back man. Interacted with you briefly on the blog when you were in prison, and on reddit years earlier when wsb was in its infancy
If you ever feel like doing YouTube streams in the future we'd love to hear from you again
The last prediction for "Computing" is all wrong lmao