Hey Martin loving these newsletter style updates! You reminded me of a friend of mine 83 years of age, retired librarian. I've known him for 10 years by now - his mind is sharp as ever, he keeps a very busy social live and has lots of passion projects going on! He also has a monthly newsletter called Brownian Movement (last name is Brown!), very similar to yours. Seeing someone like this gives me hope for growing old... Keep it up! :)
Hi, I feel like I've missed the huge +48% rise in HongKong HSI Index as any western outlet seemed not to mention it much or at all - looking at you Bloomberg News! Could only vaguely read about it in Goldman Sachs' newsletter. That's the kind of topics I'd love to get into, while every outlet I know practically ignored it - presented only the negative aspects.
Appreciate all that you share. I recently liked CELH on the basis of their recent big product/marketing push and their market cap compared to Monster. Up a good amount already this year - Sold some but debating what to do with the rest. I also like GOOG, but it seems like they've been left behind compared to other big tech stocks. I'd be interested what you know about the quantum computing business and what potential there is there. What do you think about BRK-B as a long-term play (30+ years to retirement)? Lastly, interested to see your analysis on PTON. I know revenue has taken a hit over the last year or two, but they certainly have some brand value - Curious what that's worth in your opinion and if it's a good play. Sorry - You asked for some stocks to analyze :). Appreciate you!
I've already heard you speak enthusiastically elsewhere about the Chinese work on quantum computing, so I'd like to shed some light on the subject.
In general, I would advise you to ignore everything quantum computing-related. The whole subject is extremely overhyped by “experts” to receive more VC funding or grant money. Moreover, it's difficult to evaluate the merits of these papers without a deep understanding of quantum computing and a good eye for bullshit. Few people possess both, which is why you and many others are talking about the above-mentioned (bullshit) paper.
If you want to get an accurate understanding of where we are currently at with regard to building a working QC and what challenges we face, I highly recommend reading the short book that I linked in the thread called "Will We Ever Have a Quantum Computer?"
The Chinese paper is a good example of dishonest quantum hype I talk about. It's basically a scam – or, to put it in the words of Scott Aaronson, it's Cargo Cult Quantum Factoring. There are many things "wrong" with it, but this line from the paper sums it up quite well:
"It should be pointed out that the quantum speedup of the algorithm is unclear due to the ambiguous convergence of QAOA."
If these scientists were honest, they would have written "very very very likely non-existent" instead of "unclear." But then again, if they were honest, they wouldn't have publishing this paper at all.
As Scott Aaronson, who is probably the most honest expert in the whole field, explained when talking about the paper (https://scottaaronson.blog/?p=6957):
"All told, this is one of the most actively misleading quantum computing papers I’ve seen in 25 years, and I’ve seen … many. Having said that, this actually _isn’t_ the first time I’ve encountered the strange idea that the exponential quantum speedup for factoring integers, which we know about from Shor’s algorithm, should somehow “rub off” onto quantum optimization heuristics that embody none of the actual insights of Shor’s algorithm, as if by sympathetic magic. Since this idea needs a name, I’d hereby like to propose **Cargo Cult Quantum Factoring**."
Just a thought, you seem to be great at ideation (liked the MFM pod) maybe a series on your approach. MBA Monday style like Fred Wilson did years back.
Hey Martin loving these newsletter style updates! You reminded me of a friend of mine 83 years of age, retired librarian. I've known him for 10 years by now - his mind is sharp as ever, he keeps a very busy social live and has lots of passion projects going on! He also has a monthly newsletter called Brownian Movement (last name is Brown!), very similar to yours. Seeing someone like this gives me hope for growing old... Keep it up! :)
Dmitry K
Hi, I feel like I've missed the huge +48% rise in HongKong HSI Index as any western outlet seemed not to mention it much or at all - looking at you Bloomberg News! Could only vaguely read about it in Goldman Sachs' newsletter. That's the kind of topics I'd love to get into, while every outlet I know practically ignored it - presented only the negative aspects.
Appreciate all that you share. I recently liked CELH on the basis of their recent big product/marketing push and their market cap compared to Monster. Up a good amount already this year - Sold some but debating what to do with the rest. I also like GOOG, but it seems like they've been left behind compared to other big tech stocks. I'd be interested what you know about the quantum computing business and what potential there is there. What do you think about BRK-B as a long-term play (30+ years to retirement)? Lastly, interested to see your analysis on PTON. I know revenue has taken a hit over the last year or two, but they certainly have some brand value - Curious what that's worth in your opinion and if it's a good play. Sorry - You asked for some stocks to analyze :). Appreciate you!
I've already heard you speak enthusiastically elsewhere about the Chinese work on quantum computing, so I'd like to shed some light on the subject.
In general, I would advise you to ignore everything quantum computing-related. The whole subject is extremely overhyped by “experts” to receive more VC funding or grant money. Moreover, it's difficult to evaluate the merits of these papers without a deep understanding of quantum computing and a good eye for bullshit. Few people possess both, which is why you and many others are talking about the above-mentioned (bullshit) paper.
I recently wrote a detailed Twitter thread about the whole subject and the surrounding hype here: https://twitter.com/SvenSchnieders/status/1609961336816996354?s=20.
If you want to get an accurate understanding of where we are currently at with regard to building a working QC and what challenges we face, I highly recommend reading the short book that I linked in the thread called "Will We Ever Have a Quantum Computer?"
The Chinese paper is a good example of dishonest quantum hype I talk about. It's basically a scam – or, to put it in the words of Scott Aaronson, it's Cargo Cult Quantum Factoring. There are many things "wrong" with it, but this line from the paper sums it up quite well:
"It should be pointed out that the quantum speedup of the algorithm is unclear due to the ambiguous convergence of QAOA."
If these scientists were honest, they would have written "very very very likely non-existent" instead of "unclear." But then again, if they were honest, they wouldn't have publishing this paper at all.
As Scott Aaronson, who is probably the most honest expert in the whole field, explained when talking about the paper (https://scottaaronson.blog/?p=6957):
"All told, this is one of the most actively misleading quantum computing papers I’ve seen in 25 years, and I’ve seen … many. Having said that, this actually _isn’t_ the first time I’ve encountered the strange idea that the exponential quantum speedup for factoring integers, which we know about from Shor’s algorithm, should somehow “rub off” onto quantum optimization heuristics that embody none of the actual insights of Shor’s algorithm, as if by sympathetic magic. Since this idea needs a name, I’d hereby like to propose **Cargo Cult Quantum Factoring**."
more finance lessons, yay!
Really have appreciated your deep commentary on sfx in particular
applying your direct insight into legal process lawcraft and litigation.
Your takes are funny as well as incredibly insightful.
Could be just me but more content there would be sweet.
Just a thought, you seem to be great at ideation (liked the MFM pod) maybe a series on your approach. MBA Monday style like Fred Wilson did years back.
Awesome blog Martin
When I check your streams I see Rust, will have to use playback!
We're all going to maek it